Offensive snaps (Last 3)2 games
42.5
1 game(s) carried no value
Availability
Current status
Depth role
RB1
3WR 1TE
CuratedBets historical data · Aug 18 · 3:33 AM ET · Updated 65d ago
Exact-Prop Mentions
Attention
1
Attention source
2 captured statements
Rank for this player
1 / 1
Attention timing
First captured source 6:10 PM ET
Only one captured source has picked this exact prop so far.
First mention 1d 18h before kickoff
Additional source activity
- 1 contextual or unclassified — captured statements whose intent could not be established. Not counted as agreement of any kind.
None of these counts toward the attention figure above. A source who leans, fades or passes has not picked this prop.
Show the full chronology
- 6:10 PM ET austinsprops mentioned this exact prop
- 1:00 PM ET Kickoff
Sportsbook captures and source statements in the order they were recorded. Their order is a fact; it is not evidence that either caused the other.
Ranked by how many distinct sources hold an active tracked position on each exact prop. Captured statements that take no position (leans, fades and context) are quoted but never counted here. Attention is not a recommendation, and CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Opportunity
Role and opportunity
How much of this offence has actually run through him, whether that has moved, and how steady it has been. Per game, last 5 of 2026.
Rush attempts
18.0
Rushing yards
111.6
Targets
3.4
Receptions
2.4
4 metrics below the coverage floor
- Snap share — Observed in 3 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Red-zone carries — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Goal-line carries — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Rush share — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
Exact-Line History
History at 19.5
Every window below is computed at this exact line only, graded with the same engine that settles a real prop. Records at nearby lines are not mixed in. A balanced record is reported as neutral, not as a lean.
Last 5
4 of 5 above
5 graded · sample: limited
Last 10
6 of 9 above
9 graded · 1 ungraded · sample: moderate
Season
4 of 5 above
5 graded · 1 ungraded · sample: limited
Multi-season
20 of 56 above
56 graded · 1 ungraded · sample: substantial
Home
4 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Away
5 of 9 above
9 graded · 1 ungraded · sample: moderate
Versus opponent
2 of 2 above
2 graded · sample: insufficient
19.5 is 27 below the Last 5 median of 46.5.
Sample strength reflects the number of graded games only, never how lopsided the record is. Where a line is stated as a distance from a median, that is the difference between two numbers — not a statement that the line is favourable, soft or mispriced.
View historical detail
Assessed history
7Counter historical context
-
No historical lean Home
8 of 27 above 19.5
Why no historical lean?
- Values sit close to the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Additional historical context
-
Moderate historical context Season
3 of 4 above 19.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Moderate historical context Last 5
3 of 4 above 19.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Moderate historical context Last 3
3 of 3 above 19.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Last 10
5 of 9 above 19.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
No historical lean Away
11 of 28 above 19.5
Why no historical lean?
- Values sit close to the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
No historical lean Vs opponent
1 of 1 above 19.5
Why no historical lean?
- Based on a single game
- Values sit close to the line
- Per-game values not available
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Bands describe the EVIDENCE, not the bet.
Facts shown without a strength band
- Rest History — Rest is recorded as exact day counts with no cohort of values for matching-rest games, so there is no magnitude to measure.
Recorded values
56
Last 3
N=3
55 median 50.7 average 38–59
55 59 38
Finished above 19.5 in 3 of 3.
Last 5
N=4
46.5 median 40.8 average 11–59
11 55 59 38
Finished above 19.5 in 3 of 4.
1 game in this window has no recorded value for this statistic and is excluded — unknown, not zero.
Last 10
N=9
29 median 35.8 average 11–93
11 14 29 93 12 11 55 59 38
Finished above 19.5 in 5 of 9.
1 game in this window has no recorded value for this statistic and is excluded — unknown, not zero.
Splits
- Season N=4 median 46.5
- Home N=27 median 14
- Away N=28 median 17
- Vs opponent N=1 21
Every split shows the games behind it. A split with a small sample is reported as those games rather than as an average of them.
Upcoming rest: 7 days · prior games on 7 days’ rest: N=35
Exact days between games. CuratedBets defines no short/standard/extended rest categories, so none is applied here.
Game statistics: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical archive, not a live official feed). Averages, medians and counts: CuratedBets calculation.
No sportsbook price was captured at this exact line. No matching CuratedBets sportsbook observation captured for over19.5Longest Rush . A nearby line is a different prop and is not shown in its place.
These are records of what CuratedBets observed and when. They are not an opening line, not a closing line, not a live price and not a recommendation. CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Recent Games
Last 5 games
The individual games behind the averages above, most recent first. These are recorded results, not a trend and not a forecast. A blank cell means the statistic was not recorded for that game — it is not a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Snaps | Carries | Rush yds | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | vs CHI | — | 9 | 61 | 2 |
| Oct 11 | vs BAL | — | 17 | 86 | 7 |
| Oct 5 | @ NO | 34 | 19 | 145 | 2 |
| Sep 24 | @ GB | 51 | 29 | 194 | 2 |
| Sep 20 | vs CAR | 35 | 16 | 72 | 4 |
Regular season only. These are the games this player actually played, so a week he missed is absent rather than recorded as a zero.
Matchup
Matchup context
What this defence has been observed doing, and — when an exact prop is selected — the recorded interaction between these units and defences this player has already faced that are structurally similar to this week’s. These are observed distributions. They are not a claim that either side has the better of it.
Opponent defensive structure · CHI
3
Defensive personnel
2 CB, 2 DE, 2 DT, 1 FS, 1 MLB, 1 OLB, 2 SS 37%
442 charted plays across 5 games
Defenders in box
5.0 average
442 charted plays across 5 games
Pass rushers
2.1 average
442 charted plays across 5 games
Observed over 442 charted plays across 5 charted games · Last 5 charted games · 2025. CuratedBets does not yet have usable charted defensive plays from this season, so this uses the most recent charted games available before kickoff — historical context, not a description of how this defence is playing this season. These are recorded distributions for this defence. They are not a rating, not a comparison against other defences, and they carry no side.
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
View full matchup detail
Offensive scheme
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Scheme interaction
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
How comparable defences were chosen
- Man / zone compared as a charted distribution
- Coverage shell compared as a charted distribution
- Defensive personnel compared as a charted distribution
- Defenders in box compared as a charted distribution
- Pass rushers compared as a charted distribution
A defence qualifies when enough of these families are charted for both teams and the observed distributions are close enough to compare. How close is measured internally and is not published: it describes how alike two defences have looked, and it is never a probability, a price or an expected outcome.
Availability
1Availability — 1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Rest and workload
4
Rush attempts (Last 3)3 games
19
3 games · average 21.6667
Touches (Last 3)3 games
21
3 games · average 24
Days rest1 game
7 days
Travel and environment
5
Venue1 game
Retractable_state_unknown · fieldturf
Altitude data unavailable
Home / away1 game
Home
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Time-zone shift1 game
No time-zone change
Travel1 game
Same venue as last game
Conditions
Weather not reported
Not recorded in the source data.
Coaching context
2
Head coach tenure5 games
Raheem Morris
5 games observed · 2026
this coach name has more than one stint here, so the name is carrying more than it can
Coordinator / play-caller
Data unavailable
Offensive coordinator · Defensive coordinator · Play caller
Not recorded in the source data.
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Each line names a missing input, not a judgement. “Nothing on record” is not a finding of full health, an unchanged unit, or an ordinary week.
A distribution whose top category holds the whole sample is one charted style observed, not a tendency. Charting depth varies by game and the play count is stated on every card.
Context
Source Context
Source-reported context relevant to this player and matchup.
Player context
Matchup
Player contextAgainst Pittsburgh and Carolina through two games, Atlanta allowed running backs 127 rushing yards on 38 attempts (3.3 YPC) and 10 catches for 39 yards.
Matchup
Player contextGreen Bay allowed running backs a league-low 2.8 yards per carry through two games, while allowing 3 rushing touchdowns and 7 catches for 72 yards.
Context
Player contextAtlanta had a league-worst -53.1 offensive EPA through two weeks (worst through two games since the 2006 Raiders at -61.0), a league-high 7 turnovers (most through two games of a season since 1999), and was the only team yet to run an offensive red-zone play.
Recent Form
Player contextRobinson averaged 0.84 fantasy points per snap with Cooper Rush, 0.88 with Kirk Cousins, and 1.02 with Penix.
Usage Workload
Player contextRobinson played 50.7% of snaps in Week 2, down from 76.7% in Week 1 because Atlanta shut things down in the third quarter.
Recent Form
Player contextRobinson had 29 touches for 173 total yards and a touchdown in Week 1, then 19 touches for 81 total yards in Week 2.
Injury
Player contextMichael Penix is returning this week.
News
Player contextThe Falcons O-Line has allowed 1.54 yards before contact, which ranks #23.
Matchup
Player contextPackers opponents’ running backs have averaged 2.81 yards per carry, lowest among 32 teams; Green Bay allowed 1.38 yards before contact per attempt and 2 runs of 15+ yards on 49 running back attempts.
Recent Form
Player contextBijan Robinson has rushed 37 times for 155 yards through two games.
Matchup
Player contextLast year, Penix did not target backfield receivers when getting this look. 2025 Zone Coverage: 8.11 YPA (#11/37), 93.2 QBR (#16/37), backfield Tgt% 9.2% (#37/37); vs 2-HI: 6.77 YPA (#20/37), 98.7 QBR (#18/37), backfield Tgt% 4.4% (#37/37).
Matchup
Player contextPackers defense by alignment: Backfield 13.8% Tgt% (#26/32), 2.12 YPRR, 10.29 YPR.
Matchup
Player contextThrough 2 games, Green Bay used Zone 84.8%, 2-HI 67.1%, Cover 4 27.8%, Cover 3 22.8%, Cover 6 16.5%, and Cover 2 17.7%.
Recent Form
Player contextBijan was targeted 18.2% of the time last year with Penix under center.
Recent Form
Player contextLast year, in 9 games with Penix under center, Bijan ran 32 routes out wide and had 1.13 YPRR with a 2.7% Tgt%.
Recent Form
Player contextIn 2026, backfield routes had a 16.7% target rate, 2.08 yards per route, and 6 catches on 9 targets; wideout routes had a 5.6% target rate, 5.43 yards per route, and 3 catches on 7 targets (small sample).
Usage Workload
Player context2025 alignment: Backfield 65.7%, Slot 21.1%, Wideout 13.2%; 2026: Backfield 72.7%, Slot 6.1%, Wideout 21.2%. Slot usage is down 15.0%, and new OC Tommy Reese has Bijan running way less out of the slot.
Recent Form
Player contextThe Falcons did not score a touchdown last week.
Recent Form
Player contextBijan Robinson scored 13 total touchdowns in 14 games with Michael Penix Jr.
Results
What happened
over19.5Longest Rush
23
winGraded Oct 19, 17:15 UTC
How CuratedBets counts attention and evidence
Method
Evidence and method
How the football observations on this page group together, and which families had anything to say.
21 football observations 15 evidence groups 5 of 13 families with anything on record. Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals.
How this page counts evidence
Observations
21
Evidence groups
15
Groups with a recorded overlap
3
Families with anything on record
5 of 13
Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals. The largest group holds 3 readings of the same underlying evidence.
A group is a statement about how observations relate to one another. It is not a strength, a rating or a confidence, and a large number of groups is not a claim that the evidence is strong.
Family coverage for this prop
- Base role Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Game-state role 9 observations · 9 not displayable
- Offensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Defensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Scheme interaction Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Availability 1 observation · 1 not displayable
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Rest and workload 4 observations
- Travel and environment 5 observations
- Coaching context 2 observations
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Every absence names a missing input rather than a judgement. Nothing on record is not a finding of zero. “Not displayable” means the observation exists and this page has no reader-facing wording for it yet; it is counted here rather than printed in the form the engine stored it.