Offensive snaps (Last 3)1 game
65
2 game(s) carried no value
Availability
Current status
Depth role
WR3
3WR 1TE
CuratedBets historical data · Aug 18 · 3:33 AM ET · Updated 65d ago
Switch prop · 3 on this player
Each line and each side is its own prop. Selecting one rescopes the whole page to it, and the address bar keeps the market, side and line.
Exact-Prop Mentions
Attention
1
Attention source
1 captured statement
Rank for this player
1 / 3
Attention timing
First captured source 4:08 PM ET
Only one captured source has picked this exact prop so far.
First mention 4h 06m before kickoff
Show the full chronology
- 4:03 AM ET Sportsbook 4.5 +124
- 10:43 AM ET Sportsbook 3.5 -172
- 8:15 PM ET Kickoff
Sportsbook captures and source statements in the order they were recorded. Their order is a fact; it is not evidence that either caused the other.
Ranked by how many distinct sources hold an active tracked position on each exact prop. Captured statements that take no position (leans, fades and context) are quoted but never counted here. Attention is not a recommendation, and CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Opportunity
Role and opportunity
How much of this offence has actually run through him, whether that has moved, and how steady it has been. Per game, last 5 of 2026.
Targets
6.8
Receptions
4.2
Receiving yards
45.0
3 metrics below the coverage floor
- Snap share — Observed in 2 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Target share — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Red-zone targets — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
Exact-Line History
History at 4.5
Every window below is computed at this exact line only, graded with the same engine that settles a real prop. Records at nearby lines are not mixed in. A balanced record is reported as neutral, not as a lean.
Last 5
2 of 5 above
5 graded · sample: limited
Last 10
5 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Season
3 of 6 above
6 graded · sample: moderate
Multi-season
7 of 28 above
28 graded · sample: substantial
Home
2 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Away
4 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Versus opponent
1 of 3 above
3 graded · sample: limited
4.5 is 0.5 below the Last 5 median of 5.
Sample strength reflects the number of graded games only, never how lopsided the record is. Where a line is stated as a distance from a median, that is the difference between two numbers — not a statement that the line is favourable, soft or mispriced. This history spans more than one club; the values are the player’s own and are not all from his current team.
View historical detail
Assessed history
7Counter historical context
-
Moderate historical context Home
1 of 13 above 4.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Meaningful difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Additional historical context
-
Moderate historical context Last 10
4 of 10 above 4.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Meaningful difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Away
5 of 12 above 4.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Season
2 of 3 above 4.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Last 5
3 of 5 above 4.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Last 3
2 of 3 above 4.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Vs opponent
0 of 2 above 4.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Bands describe the EVIDENCE, not the bet.
Facts shown without a strength band
- Advanced Performance — No comparison cohort exists for these metrics, so how substantial they are cannot be established from stored data.
- Rest History — Rest is recorded as exact day counts with no cohort of values for matching-rest games, so there is no magnitude to measure.
Recorded values
25
Last 3
N=3
5 median 5 average 3–7
7 5 3
Finished above 4.5 in 2 of 3.
Last 5
N=5
5 median 4.6 average 3–7
3 5 7 5 3
Finished above 4.5 in 3 of 5.
Last 10
N=10
3 median 3.8 average 1–8
2 1 1 3 8 3 5 7 5 3
Finished above 4.5 in 4 of 10.
Splits
- Season N=3 median 5
- Home N=13 median 3
- Away N=12 median 3.5
- Vs opponent N=2 4 · 3
Every split shows the games behind it. A split with a small sample is reported as those games rather than as an average of them.
- Red-zone targets 0.4 N=5
Advanced, last 5
- Receiving EPA 4.45 N=5
- Air yards 69.4 N=5
Upcoming rest: 8 days · prior games on 8 days’ rest: N=2
Exact days between games. CuratedBets defines no short/standard/extended rest categories, so none is applied here.
Game statistics: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical archive, not a live official feed). Averages, medians and counts: CuratedBets calculation.
These are records of what CuratedBets observed and when. They are not an opening line, not a closing line, not a live price and not a recommendation. CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Windows running the other way
1
Multi-season record
At this exact line, 7 over / 21 under / 0 push across 28 graded games.
Exact-line factual history
These are the same recorded windows shown above, selected because their direction runs against the side of the selected prop. CuratedBets does not construct an opposing argument when none exists in the data, and a window that runs the other way is history, not a reason to take the other side.
Recent Games
Last 5 games
The individual games behind the averages above, most recent first. These are recorded results, not a trend and not a forecast. A blank cell means the statistic was not recorded for that game — it is not a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Snaps | Targets | Rec | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | @ NYG | — | 6 | 3 | 42 |
| Oct 11 | vs MIN | — | 6 | 4 | 26 |
| Oct 5 | vs ATL | 66 | 9 | 6 | 54 |
| Sep 27 | vs LV | — | 6 | 3 | 39 |
| Sep 20 | @ BAL | 65 | 7 | 5 | 64 |
Regular season only. These are the games this player actually played, so a week he missed is absent rather than recorded as a zero.
Matchup
Matchup context
What this defence has been observed doing, and — when an exact prop is selected — the recorded interaction between these units and defences this player has already faced that are structurally similar to this week’s. These are observed distributions. They are not a claim that either side has the better of it.
Opponent defensive structure · ATL
3
Defensive personnel
3 CB, 1 DE, 2 DT, 1 FS, 2 ILB, 1 OLB, 1 SS 26%
394 charted plays across 5 games
Defenders in box
5.1 average
394 charted plays across 5 games
Pass rushers
2.2 average
394 charted plays across 5 games
Observed over 394 charted plays across 5 charted games · Last 5 charted games · 2025. CuratedBets does not yet have usable charted defensive plays from this season, so this uses the most recent charted games available before kickoff — historical context, not a description of how this defence is playing this season. These are recorded distributions for this defence. They are not a rating, not a comparison against other defences, and they carry no side.
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
View full matchup detail
Offensive scheme
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Scheme interaction
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
How comparable defences were chosen
- Man / zone compared as a charted distribution
- Coverage shell compared as a charted distribution
- Defensive personnel compared as a charted distribution
- Defenders in box compared as a charted distribution
- Pass rushers compared as a charted distribution
A defence qualifies when enough of these families are charted for both teams and the observed distributions are close enough to compare. How close is measured internally and is not published: it describes how alike two defences have looked, and it is never a probability, a price or an expected outcome.
Availability
1Availability — 1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Rest and workload
4
Targets (Last 3)3 games
7 targets
3 games · average 7.3333 targets
Receptions (Last 3)3 games
5 receptions
Days rest1 game
8 days
Travel and environment
5
Venue1 game
Indoor_confirmed · sportturf
Altitude data unavailable
Home / away1 game
Home
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Time-zone shift1 game
No time-zone change
Travel1 game
Same venue as last game
Conditions
Weather not reported
Not recorded in the source data.
Coaching context
2
Head coach tenure3 games
Kellen Moore
3 games observed · 2026
this coach name has more than one stint here, so the name is carrying more than it can
Coordinator / play-caller
Data unavailable
Offensive coordinator · Defensive coordinator · Play caller
Not recorded in the source data.
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Each line names a missing input, not a judgement. “Nothing on record” is not a finding of full health, an unchanged unit, or an ordinary week.
A distribution whose top category holds the whole sample is one charted style observed, not a tendency. Charting depth varies by game and the play count is stated on every card.
Context
Source Context
Source-reported context relevant to this player and matchup.
No source context has been recorded for this player yet.
Results
What happened
over4.5Receptions
6
winGraded Oct 7, 18:02 UTC
How CuratedBets counts attention and evidence
Method
Evidence and method
How the football observations on this page group together, and which families had anything to say.
18 football observations 14 evidence groups 5 of 13 families with anything on record. Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals.
How this page counts evidence
Observations
18
Evidence groups
14
Groups with a recorded overlap
2
Families with anything on record
5 of 13
Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals. The largest group holds 3 readings of the same underlying evidence.
A group is a statement about how observations relate to one another. It is not a strength, a rating or a confidence, and a large number of groups is not a claim that the evidence is strong.
Family coverage for this prop
- Base role Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Game-state role 6 observations · 6 not displayable
- Offensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Defensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Scheme interaction Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Availability 1 observation · 1 not displayable
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Rest and workload 4 observations
- Travel and environment 5 observations
- Coaching context 2 observations
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Every absence names a missing input rather than a judgement. Nothing on record is not a finding of zero. “Not displayable” means the observation exists and this page has no reader-facing wording for it yet; it is counted here rather than printed in the form the engine stored it.