Offensive snaps (Last 3)1 game
50
2 game(s) carried no value
Availability
Current status
Depth role
KR2
Special Teams
CuratedBets historical data · Aug 18 · 3:33 AM ET · Updated 65d ago
Exact-Prop Mentions
Attention
1
Attention source
2 captured statements
Rank for this player
1 / 1
Attention timing
First captured source 3:23 PM ET
Only one captured source has picked this exact prop so far.
First mention 4h 51m before kickoff
Additional source activity
- 1 contextual or unclassified — captured statements whose intent could not be established. Not counted as agreement of any kind.
None of these counts toward the attention figure above. A source who leans, fades or passes has not picked this prop.
Show the full chronology
- 8:15 PM ET Kickoff
Sportsbook captures and source statements in the order they were recorded. Their order is a fact; it is not evidence that either caused the other.
Ranked by how many distinct sources hold an active tracked position on each exact prop. Captured statements that take no position (leans, fades and context) are quoted but never counted here. Attention is not a recommendation, and CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Opportunity
Role and opportunity
How much of this offence has actually run through him, whether that has moved, and how steady it has been. Per game, last 5 of 2026.
Rush attempts
14.8
Rushing yards
82.8
Targets
4.8
Receptions
3.2
4 metrics below the coverage floor
- Snap share — Observed in 2 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Red-zone carries — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Goal-line carries — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Rush share — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
Exact-Line History
History at 99.5
Every window below is computed at this exact line only, graded with the same engine that settles a real prop. Records at nearby lines are not mixed in. A balanced record is reported as neutral, not as a lean.
Last 5
3 of 5 above
5 graded · sample: limited
Last 10
4 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Season
3 of 6 above
6 graded · sample: moderate
Multi-season
10 of 70 above
70 graded · sample: substantial
Home
2 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Away
3 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Versus opponent
2 of 9 above
9 graded · sample: moderate
99.5 is 22.5 above the Last 5 median of 77.
Sample strength reflects the number of graded games only, never how lopsided the record is. Where a line is stated as a distance from a median, that is the difference between two numbers — not a statement that the line is favourable, soft or mispriced.
View historical detail
Assessed history
7Counter historical context
-
Strong historical context Away
3 of 33 above 99.5
Why strong historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Strong historical context Home
5 of 34 above 99.5
Why strong historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Strong historical context Vs opponent
1 of 8 above 99.5
Why strong historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Last 10
2 of 10 above 99.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Large difference from the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Additional historical context
-
Moderate historical context Season
1 of 3 above 99.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Meaningful difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Moderate historical context Last 5
1 of 5 above 99.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Meaningful difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Moderate historical context Last 3
1 of 3 above 99.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Meaningful difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Bands describe the EVIDENCE, not the bet.
Facts shown without a strength band
- Rest History — Rest is recorded as exact day counts with no cohort of values for matching-rest games, so there is no magnitude to measure.
Recorded values
67
Last 3
N=3
77 median 108.7 average 73–176
73 77 176
Finished above 99.5 in 1 of 3.
Last 5
N=5
77 median 97.8 average 64–176
64 99 73 77 176
Finished above 99.5 in 1 of 5.
Last 10
N=10
70.5 median 86.2 average 44–176
68 44 62 48 151 64 99 73 77 176
Finished above 99.5 in 2 of 10.
Splits
- Season N=3 median 77
- Home N=34 median 57
- Away N=33 median 63
- Vs opponent N=8 median 64
Every split shows the games behind it. A split with a small sample is reported as those games rather than as an average of them.
Upcoming rest: 4 days · prior games on 4 days’ rest: N=6
Exact days between games. CuratedBets defines no short/standard/extended rest categories, so none is applied here.
Game statistics: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical archive, not a live official feed). Averages, medians and counts: CuratedBets calculation.
No sportsbook price was captured at this exact line. No matching CuratedBets sportsbook observation captured for over99.5Rush + Receiving Yards . A nearby line is a different prop and is not shown in its place.
These are records of what CuratedBets observed and when. They are not an opening line, not a closing line, not a live price and not a recommendation. CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Windows running the other way
1
Multi-season record
At this exact line, 10 over / 60 under / 0 push across 70 graded games.
Exact-line factual history
These are the same recorded windows shown above, selected because their direction runs against the side of the selected prop. CuratedBets does not construct an opposing argument when none exists in the data, and a window that runs the other way is history, not a reason to take the other side.
Recent Games
Last 5 games
The individual games behind the averages above, most recent first. These are recorded results, not a trend and not a forecast. A blank cell means the statistic was not recorded for that game — it is not a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Snaps | Carries | Rush yds | Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | @ TB | — | 14 | 50 | 4 |
| Oct 11 | vs IND | — | 15 | 101 | 6 |
| Oct 1 | @ CLE | 70 | 17 | 93 | 6 |
| Sep 27 | vs CIN | — | 17 | 127 | 4 |
| Sep 20 | @ NE | 50 | 11 | 43 | 4 |
Regular season only. These are the games this player actually played, so a week he missed is absent rather than recorded as a zero.
Matchup
Matchup context
What this defence has been observed doing, and — when an exact prop is selected — the recorded interaction between these units and defences this player has already faced that are structurally similar to this week’s. These are observed distributions. They are not a claim that either side has the better of it.
Opponent defensive structure · CLE
3
Defensive personnel
2 CB, 2 DE, 2 DT, 1 FS, 2 MLB, 1 OLB, 1 SS 15%
396 charted plays across 5 games
Defenders in box
5.1 average
396 charted plays across 5 games
Pass rushers
1.9 average
396 charted plays across 5 games
Observed over 396 charted plays across 5 charted games · Last 5 charted games · 2025. CuratedBets does not yet have usable charted defensive plays from this season, so this uses the most recent charted games available before kickoff — historical context, not a description of how this defence is playing this season. These are recorded distributions for this defence. They are not a rating, not a comparison against other defences, and they carry no side.
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
View full matchup detail
Offensive scheme
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Scheme interaction
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
How comparable defences were chosen
- Man / zone compared as a charted distribution
- Coverage shell compared as a charted distribution
- Defensive personnel compared as a charted distribution
- Defenders in box compared as a charted distribution
- Pass rushers compared as a charted distribution
A defence qualifies when enough of these families are charted for both teams and the observed distributions are close enough to compare. How close is measured internally and is not published: it describes how alike two defences have looked, and it is never a probability, a price or an expected outcome.
Availability
1Availability — 1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Rest and workload
4
Rush attempts (Last 3)3 games
11
3 games · average 12.6667
Touches (Last 3)3 games
15
3 games · average 16
1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Travel and environment
5
Venue1 game
Outdoor_confirmed · grass
Altitude data unavailable
Home / away1 game
Away
FirstEnergy Stadium
Time-zone shift1 game
No time-zone change
Travel1 game
183.985 km
Conditions
Weather not reported
Not recorded in the source data.
Coaching context
2
Head coach tenure3 games
Mike McCarthy
3 games observed · 2026
Coordinator / play-caller
Data unavailable
Offensive coordinator · Defensive coordinator · Play caller
Not recorded in the source data.
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Each line names a missing input, not a judgement. “Nothing on record” is not a finding of full health, an unchanged unit, or an ordinary week.
A distribution whose top category holds the whole sample is one charted style observed, not a tendency. Charting depth varies by game and the play count is stated on every card.
Context
Source Context
Source-reported context relevant to this player and matchup.
Player context
Matchup
Player contextTampa Bay ranks 2nd in rushing defense; the author expects the Bucs to focus on Warren and calls him the Steelers’ best offensive player this year.
Results
What happened
over99.5Rush + Receiving Yards
126
winGraded Oct 7, 02:47 UTC
How CuratedBets counts attention and evidence
Method
Evidence and method
How the football observations on this page group together, and which families had anything to say.
21 football observations 15 evidence groups 5 of 13 families with anything on record. Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals.
How this page counts evidence
Observations
21
Evidence groups
15
Groups with a recorded overlap
3
Families with anything on record
5 of 13
Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals. The largest group holds 3 readings of the same underlying evidence.
A group is a statement about how observations relate to one another. It is not a strength, a rating or a confidence, and a large number of groups is not a claim that the evidence is strong.
Family coverage for this prop
- Base role Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Game-state role 9 observations · 9 not displayable
- Offensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Defensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Scheme interaction Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Availability 1 observation · 1 not displayable
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Rest and workload 4 observations · 1 not displayable
- Travel and environment 5 observations
- Coaching context 2 observations
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Every absence names a missing input rather than a judgement. Nothing on record is not a finding of zero. “Not displayable” means the observation exists and this page has no reader-facing wording for it yet; it is counted here rather than printed in the form the engine stored it.