Offensive snaps (Last 3)2 games
45
1 game(s) carried no value
Availability
Current status
Depth role
TE1
3WR 1TE
CuratedBets historical data · Aug 18 · 3:33 AM ET · Updated 65d ago
Switch prop · 3 on this player
Each line and each side is its own prop. Selecting one rescopes the whole page to it, and the address bar keeps the market, side and line.
Exact-Prop Mentions
Attention
1
Attention source
3 captured statements
Rank for this player
1 / 3
Attention timing
First captured source 5:12 PM ET
Only one captured source has picked this exact prop so far.
First mention 3h 02m before kickoff
A time marked “recorded” is when CuratedBets captured the statement. The platform reported no publication time for it, and one is never estimated.
Additional source activity
- 2 contextual or unclassified — captured statements whose intent could not be established. Not counted as agreement of any kind.
None of these counts toward the attention figure above. A source who leans, fades or passes has not picked this prop.
Show the full chronology
- 1:29 PM ET Sportsbook 42.5 -114
- 7:18 PM ET Sportsbook 46.5 -113
- 6:08 PM ET coleyscashes mention recorded by CuratedBets
- 8:15 PM ET Kickoff
Sportsbook captures and source statements in the order they were recorded. Their order is a fact; it is not evidence that either caused the other.
Ranked by how many distinct sources hold an active tracked position on each exact prop. Captured statements that take no position (leans, fades and context) are quoted but never counted here. Attention is not a recommendation, and CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Opportunity
Role and opportunity
How much of this offence has actually run through him, whether that has moved, and how steady it has been. Per game, last 5 of 2026.
Targets
6.2
Receptions
4.4
Receiving yards
36.8
3 metrics below the coverage floor
- Snap share — Observed in 3 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Target share — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Red-zone targets — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
Exact-Line History
History at 45.5
Every window below is computed at this exact line only, graded with the same engine that settles a real prop. Records at nearby lines are not mixed in. A balanced record is reported as neutral, not as a lean.
Last 5
1 of 5 above
5 graded · sample: limited
Last 10 · Home
4 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Season
2 of 6 above
6 graded · sample: moderate
Multi-season
16 of 45 above
45 graded · sample: substantial
Away
5 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Versus opponent
0 of 1 above
1 graded · sample: insufficient
45.5 is 12.5 below the Last 5 median of 58.
Sample strength reflects the number of graded games only, never how lopsided the record is. Where a line is stated as a distance from a median, that is the difference between two numbers — not a statement that the line is favourable, soft or mispriced.
View historical detail
Assessed history
6Counter historical context
-
Weak historical evidence Home
5 of 20 above 45.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Additional historical context
-
Moderate historical context Last 3
1 of 3 above 45.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Last 5
3 of 5 above 45.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
No historical lean Last 10
5 of 10 above 45.5
Why no historical lean?
- Values sit close to the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
No historical lean Away
10 of 21 above 45.5
Why no historical lean?
- Values sit close to the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
No historical lean Season
1 of 2 above 45.5
Why no historical lean?
- Values sit close to the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Bands describe the EVIDENCE, not the bet.
Facts shown without a strength band
- Advanced Performance — No comparison cohort exists for these metrics, so how substantial they are cannot be established from stored data.
- Rest History — Rest is recorded as exact day counts with no cohort of values for matching-rest games, so there is no magnitude to measure.
Recorded values
41
Last 3
N=3
20 median 33.3 average 15–65
20 65 15
Finished above 45.5 in 1 of 3.
Last 5
N=5
58 median 60.2 average 15–143
58 143 20 65 15
Finished above 45.5 in 3 of 5.
Last 10
N=10
49.5 median 56.9 average 15–143
16 124 29 56 43 58 143 20 65 15
Finished above 45.5 in 5 of 10.
Splits
- Season N=2 65 · 15
- Home N=20 median 32.5
- Away N=21 median 41
Every split shows the games behind it. A split with a small sample is reported as those games rather than as an average of them.
- Red-zone targets 1.8 N=5
Advanced, last 5
- Receiving EPA 3.76 N=5
- Air yards 32.2 N=5
- Yards after catch 40 N=5
Upcoming rest: 4 days · prior games on 4 days’ rest: N=3
Exact days between games. CuratedBets defines no short/standard/extended rest categories, so none is applied here.
Game statistics: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical archive, not a live official feed). Averages, medians and counts: CuratedBets calculation.
These are records of what CuratedBets observed and when. They are not an opening line, not a closing line, not a live price and not a recommendation. CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Recent Games
Last 5 games
The individual games behind the averages above, most recent first. These are recorded results, not a trend and not a forecast. A blank cell means the statistic was not recorded for that game — it is not a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Snaps | Targets | Rec | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | vs DAL | — | 8 | 5 | 37 |
| Oct 11 | vs CHI | — | 5 | 5 | 64 |
| Oct 4 | @ TB | 55 | 7 | 6 | 42 |
| Sep 24 | vs ATL | 50 | 8 | 4 | 26 |
| Sep 20 | @ NYJ | 58 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
Regular season only. These are the games this player actually played, so a week he missed is absent rather than recorded as a zero.
Matchup
Matchup context
What this defence has been observed doing, and — when an exact prop is selected — the recorded interaction between these units and defences this player has already faced that are structurally similar to this week’s. These are observed distributions. They are not a claim that either side has the better of it.
Opponent defensive structure · ATL
3
Defensive personnel
3 CB, 1 DE, 2 DT, 1 FS, 2 ILB, 1 OLB, 1 SS 26%
394 charted plays across 5 games
Defenders in box
5.1 average
394 charted plays across 5 games
Pass rushers
2.2 average
394 charted plays across 5 games
Observed over 394 charted plays across 5 charted games · Last 5 charted games · 2025. CuratedBets does not yet have usable charted defensive plays from this season, so this uses the most recent charted games available before kickoff — historical context, not a description of how this defence is playing this season. These are recorded distributions for this defence. They are not a rating, not a comparison against other defences, and they carry no side.
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
View full matchup detail
Offensive scheme
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Scheme interaction
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
How comparable defences were chosen
- Man / zone compared as a charted distribution
- Coverage shell compared as a charted distribution
- Defensive personnel compared as a charted distribution
- Defenders in box compared as a charted distribution
- Pass rushers compared as a charted distribution
A defence qualifies when enough of these families are charted for both teams and the observed distributions are close enough to compare. How close is measured internally and is not published: it describes how alike two defences have looked, and it is never a probability, a price or an expected outcome.
Availability
1Availability — 1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Rest and workload
4
Targets (Last 3)3 games
3 targets
3 games · average 4 targets
Receptions (Last 3)3 games
2 receptions
3 games · average 2.3333 receptions
1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Travel and environment
5
Venue1 game
Outdoor_confirmed · grass
Altitude data unavailable
Home / away1 game
Home
Lambeau Field
Time-zone shift1 game
1 hour
Travel1 game
1213.23 km
Conditions
Weather not reported
Not recorded in the source data.
Coaching context
2
Head coach tenure2 games
Matt LaFleur
2 games observed · 2026
this coach name has more than one stint here, so the name is carrying more than it can
Coordinator / play-caller
Data unavailable
Offensive coordinator · Defensive coordinator · Play caller
Not recorded in the source data.
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Each line names a missing input, not a judgement. “Nothing on record” is not a finding of full health, an unchanged unit, or an ordinary week.
A distribution whose top category holds the whole sample is one charted style observed, not a tendency. Charting depth varies by game and the play count is stated on every card.
Context
Source Context
Source-reported context relevant to this player and matchup.
Player context
Lineup
Player contextKraft has emerged as Love's reliable safety valve and run after catch weapon.
Matchup
Player contextAtlanta's defense ranks near the bottom of the league in covering tight ends and short routes.
Injury
Player contextJayden Reed has been ruled out with a neck injury, freeing significant short/middle-field target volume where Jordan Love thrives on third downs.
Matchup
Player contextThe Falcons have allowed Freiermuth 46 yards and a TD, and Waller 33 yards and 2 TDs this season.
Usage Workload
Player contextKraft ran a route on nearly EVERY drop back last week, even when targets were not there.
Recent Form
Player contextThe attached card lists L5 AVG 69.2 and an 80% hit rate; visible receiving-yard results are 60, 29, 56, 58, and 143.
Recent Form
Player contextKraft averages 16 yards per catch this season; 3 catches at that rate is 48 yards. His short-throw chunk plays are described as 15–30 yards.
Matchup
Player contextAtlanta allowed tight ends 3 touchdowns through two games and 8.8 yards per target (22nd).
Usage Workload
Player contextKraft played 66.2% of snaps in Week 1 and 98.3% in Week 2; his route rate rose from 47.8% to 84.4%, and he caught 2 of 3 targets for 15 yards in Week 2.
Matchup
Player contextKraft generally works inside against linebackers/safeties, so A.J. Terrell’s absence is not a direct 1-on-1 matchup; Terrell’s absence removes Atlanta’s best coverage piece.
Usage Workload
Player contextKraft is seeing 18.5% targets per route through 2 games this season.
Recent Form
Player contextKraft has had 24 career receptions of 20+ yards and four receptions of 50+ yards since entering the league.
Recent Form
Player contextKraft averaged 13.8 yards/reception over his career (14.1 in 2024, 15.3 in 2025, and 16.0 so far in 2026); in his shortened 2025 season he had 489 yards and 6 TDs in eight games.
Recent Form
Player contextIn Week 1, Kraft had a 3 reception, 65 yard game against the Vikings.
Recent Form
Player contextKraft is averaging 16 yards per catch through 2 games this season; 3 receptions at that average gets him to 48 yards.
Results
What happened
over45.5Receiving Yards
26
lossGraded Oct 4, 23:23 UTC
How CuratedBets counts attention and evidence
Method
Evidence and method
How the football observations on this page group together, and which families had anything to say.
18 football observations 14 evidence groups 5 of 13 families with anything on record. Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals.
How this page counts evidence
Observations
18
Evidence groups
14
Groups with a recorded overlap
2
Families with anything on record
5 of 13
Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals. The largest group holds 3 readings of the same underlying evidence.
A group is a statement about how observations relate to one another. It is not a strength, a rating or a confidence, and a large number of groups is not a claim that the evidence is strong.
Family coverage for this prop
- Base role Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Game-state role 6 observations · 6 not displayable
- Offensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Defensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Scheme interaction Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Availability 1 observation · 1 not displayable
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Rest and workload 4 observations · 1 not displayable
- Travel and environment 5 observations
- Coaching context 2 observations
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Every absence names a missing input rather than a judgement. Nothing on record is not a finding of zero. “Not displayable” means the observation exists and this page has no reader-facing wording for it yet; it is counted here rather than printed in the form the engine stored it.