Kraft has emerged as Love's reliable safety valve and run after catch weapon.

Green Bay Packers

Atlanta's defense ranks near the bottom of the league in covering tight ends and short routes.

Green Bay Packers

Jayden Reed has been ruled out with a neck injury, freeing significant short/middle-field target volume where Jordan Love thrives on third downs.

Green Bay Packers

Atlanta is starting Michael Penix Jr.; he naturally looks downfield and tends to lock onto his top targets on early reads.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta allows 63 rushing yards per game, ranking 1st.

Green Bay Packers

Johnson averaged 2.5 yards per carry in 2025.

Green Bay Packers

Johnson is seeing a larger role in Green Bay; after increased opportunity last week, he finished with 32 rushing yards.

Green Bay Packers

Johnson has stayed under 34.5 rushing yards in 10 straight games and has yet to rush for 35+ yards in a game.

Green Bay Packers

The Falcons have allowed Freiermuth 46 yards and a TD, and Waller 33 yards and 2 TDs this season.

Green Bay Packers

Kraft ran a route on nearly EVERY drop back last week, even when targets were not there.

Green Bay Packers

The attached card lists L5 AVG 69.2 and an 80% hit rate; visible receiving-yard results are 60, 29, 56, 58, and 143.

Green Bay Packers

Kraft averages 16 yards per catch this season; 3 catches at that rate is 48 yards. His short-throw chunk plays are described as 15–30 yards.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers have their home debut at Lambeau Field tonight against the Falcons.

Packers

The Falcons secondary is depleted by injuries: cornerback AJ Terrell is out, Samson Ebukam is out, and cornerback Billy Bowman may also miss the game.

Packers

The Packers were playing on the road in the rain.

Packers

The Packers dealt with significant offensive line injuries, including Zach Bako-Bewele, who tore his patellar tendon.

Packers

Jayden Reed left the game early in the 1st quarter.

Packers

Last week against the Jets, Jordan Love had 145 passing yards.

Packers

On the season, Jordan Love is averaging 266 passing yards per game and completing 52.1% of his throws.

Packers

A.J. Terrell was placed on injured reserve Tuesday.

Green Bay Packers

On 348 routes with Penix, Pitts had 16.4% of team targets, 0.28 fantasy points per route and 2 touchdowns; on 641 routes with Cousins, he had 19.1%, 0.38 and 7 touchdowns.

Atlanta Falcons

Pitts had 1 catch for 15 yards on 4 targets through two games.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta allowed tight ends 3 touchdowns through two games and 8.8 yards per target (22nd).

Green Bay Packers

Kraft played 66.2% of snaps in Week 1 and 98.3% in Week 2; his route rate rose from 47.8% to 84.4%, and he caught 2 of 3 targets for 15 yards in Week 2.

Green Bay Packers

With Jayden Reed injured, Moore played 50% of dropbacks and caught 2 of 3 targets for 6 yards.

Green Bay Packers

Dotson ran a route on 78.5% of dropbacks and led Atlanta with 43.8% of the air yards.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta allowed wide receivers 25 catches (21st) for 355 yards (25th) through the first two weeks.

Green Bay Packers

Against single-high, Golden had a 20% target rate and 1.81 yards per route run; against two-high he had a 27.9% target share and 2.74 yards per route.

Green Bay Packers

Per Fantasy Points, Golden had a team-leading 33.3% of separation wins and a team-leading 28.6% of first-read targets.

Green Bay Packers

Golden opened with 6-95-0 on 12 targets and 4-58-0 on 6 targets; he had one drop in each game.

Green Bay Packers

Atlanta nearly allowed DK Metcalf a big game in Week 1 (the article notes his own miscues), then allowed Tetairoa McMillan 101 yards on 5 catches Sunday.

Green Bay Packers

Atlanta played single-high on 64.6% of snaps (sixth); 45% of Watson’s early-season targets came against single-high, with 2.11 yards per route run.

Green Bay Packers

Watson’s slant target rate was 21.1% (career-high; previous season high 5.7%); his hitch target rate was also 21.1% (career-high), with posts at 13.2% and go routes at 26.5%.

Green Bay Packers

After Jayden Reed went down last week, the article said Green Bay’s passing tree became more concentrated.

Green Bay Packers

Watson opened with 6-147-2 on 8 targets and 4-41-1 on 11 targets; he played 82.6% and 93.8% of dropbacks, with target shares of 20% and 37.9%.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay allowed Justin Jefferson 8-92-2 and Garrett Wilson 5-57-1 to open the year.

Atlanta Falcons

With Penix, London averaged 2.98 yards per route (385 routes), a 33.5% target rate per route and 0.63 fantasy points per route; with Cousins (551 routes): 1.89, 25.6%, 0.44; Ridder (504): 2.22, 26%, 0.41; Mariota (309): 1.72, 26.2%, 0.40.

Atlanta Falcons

London’s slot rate was 28.6% of snaps last week, up from 16.1% in Week 1; the article describes him as playing more outside in the new offense, with Olamide Zaccheaus at an 82% slot rate and Zachariah Branch at 60%.

Atlanta Falcons

London had 6 catches for 80 yards on 10 targets through two weeks.

Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay allowed a league-low 3.6 yards per pass play on early downs.

Atlanta Falcons

Through two games, Green Bay allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt (7th) and a 6.2% touchdown rate (23rd); its opponents were Carson Wentz and Geno Smith, both in rain.

Atlanta Falcons

Over the past two years, Penix averaged 8.9 air yards per attempt (second in the league) and threw outside the numbers a league-high 49.4% of the time.

Atlanta Falcons

In 2025, Penix completed 60.1% (30th) for 7.2 yards per attempt (15th), with a 3.3% touchdown rate (30th) and a league-low 1.1% interception rate.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta quarterbacks had a 38.2 rating (last in the league; next closest was 63.1), 55.6% completions (31st), 5.3 yards per pass attempt (31st), 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions.

Atlanta Falcons

Penix was cleared to play and Atlanta immediately tagged him to start; he had not faced a live defense in game conditions since his knee injury in November last season, and this is a new system.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta allowed Bryce Young 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 23.5 passing points last week.

Green Bay Packers

Atlanta ranked third in pressure rate at 43.4% despite an 18.5% blitz rate (29th); its pressure rate against Carolina last week was 46.2% (fifth).

Green Bay Packers

When pressured to open the season, Love completed 33.3% (9 of 27) for 6.8 yards per attempt with an interception; his 42.8 rating ranked 26th through two games. Kept clean, he completed 63.6% (28 of 44) for 7.9 Y/A, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions; his 118.4 rating ranked 11th.

Green Bay Packers

With Bako-Bewele on the field in 2025, Love faced pressure on 37.3% of dropbacks versus 44% when he was off; interception rates were 1% vs. 2.1%, and sack rates were 3.2% vs. 7.2%.

Green Bay Packers

Right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele will miss the season after a knee injury suffered after 3 snaps Sunday; guards Aaron Brooks (22 snaps) and Donovan Jennings (14 snaps) were also injured Sunday.

Green Bay Packers

Love opened with QB11 and QB21 scoring weeks; he threw multiple touchdowns in both games, completed 50% and 55.2% of passes, and had a 21.1% inaccurate-throw rate through two weeks (only Malik Willis was higher at 22%).

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay ranked 31st in rushing EPA (-18.2); 45.8% of its possessions failed to gain a first down (league-high; league average 29.7%), and it converted 19% of third downs (4 of 21), league-low through two weeks, after ranking second in 2025 at 48.8%.

Green Bay Packers

Brooks was described as Green Bay’s passing-down back and pass-protection option; he had 26 pass-protection snaps (most among running backs) and 12 touches for 54 yards through two games.

Green Bay Packers

Brooks had no touch on 6 first-half snaps, then played 17 of the final 21 offensive snaps after Lloyd’s fumble; he finished with 5 touches for 26 yards.

Green Bay Packers

Johnson was already cutting into Lloyd’s rushing opportunities.

Green Bay Packers

Johnson played 14 snaps and had 8 touches (all runs) for 32 yards; he also fumbled Sunday.

Green Bay Packers

After Lloyd lost a fumble in the fourth quarter while Green Bay was trailing, Brooks played 17 of the final 21 offensive snaps and Lloyd did not touch the ball again; Lloyd finished with 8 touches for 26 yards.

Green Bay Packers

Lloyd played 14 snaps, started, and scored his first NFL touchdown; he and Kaleb Johnson split 5 touches each in the first half.

Green Bay Packers

Against Pittsburgh and Carolina through two games, Atlanta allowed running backs 127 rushing yards on 38 attempts (3.3 YPC) and 10 catches for 39 yards.

Atlanta Falcons

Green Bay allowed running backs a league-low 2.8 yards per carry through two games, while allowing 3 rushing touchdowns and 7 catches for 72 yards.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta had a league-worst -53.1 offensive EPA through two weeks (worst through two games since the 2006 Raiders at -61.0), a league-high 7 turnovers (most through two games of a season since 1999), and was the only team yet to run an offensive red-zone play.

Atlanta Falcons

Robinson averaged 0.84 fantasy points per snap with Cooper Rush, 0.88 with Kirk Cousins, and 1.02 with Penix.

Atlanta Falcons

Robinson played 50.7% of snaps in Week 2, down from 76.7% in Week 1 because Atlanta shut things down in the third quarter.

Atlanta Falcons

Robinson had 29 touches for 173 total yards and a touchdown in Week 1, then 19 touches for 81 total yards in Week 2.

Atlanta Falcons

Market-adjusted projection: 26.79 rushing yards against a 34.5 line; similar model calls have hit only 51% of the time.

GB

Market-adjusted projection: 7.54 carries against a 9.5 line; similar model calls have hit 54% of the time.

GB

Kraft generally works inside against linebackers/safeties, so A.J. Terrell’s absence is not a direct 1-on-1 matchup; Terrell’s absence removes Atlanta’s best coverage piece.

Green Bay Packers

Kraft is seeing 18.5% targets per route through 2 games this season.

Green Bay Packers

Kraft has had 24 career receptions of 20+ yards and four receptions of 50+ yards since entering the league.

Green Bay Packers

Kraft averaged 13.8 yards/reception over his career (14.1 in 2024, 15.3 in 2025, and 16.0 so far in 2026); in his shortened 2025 season he had 489 yards and 6 TDs in eight games.

Green Bay Packers

In Week 1, Kraft had a 3 reception, 65 yard game against the Vikings.

Green Bay Packers

Kraft is averaging 16 yards per catch through 2 games this season; 3 receptions at that average gets him to 48 yards.

Green Bay Packers

Michael Penix is returning this week.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons O-Line has allowed 1.54 yards before contact, which ranks #23.

Atlanta Falcons

Packers opponents’ running backs have averaged 2.81 yards per carry, lowest among 32 teams; Green Bay allowed 1.38 yards before contact per attempt and 2 runs of 15+ yards on 49 running back attempts.

Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson has rushed 37 times for 155 yards through two games.

Atlanta Falcons

Last year, Penix did not target backfield receivers when getting this look. 2025 Zone Coverage: 8.11 YPA (#11/37), 93.2 QBR (#16/37), backfield Tgt% 9.2% (#37/37); vs 2-HI: 6.77 YPA (#20/37), 98.7 QBR (#18/37), backfield Tgt% 4.4% (#37/37).

Atlanta Falcons

Packers defense by alignment: Backfield 13.8% Tgt% (#26/32), 2.12 YPRR, 10.29 YPR.

Atlanta Falcons

Through 2 games, Green Bay used Zone 84.8%, 2-HI 67.1%, Cover 4 27.8%, Cover 3 22.8%, Cover 6 16.5%, and Cover 2 17.7%.

Atlanta Falcons

Bijan was targeted 18.2% of the time last year with Penix under center.

Atlanta Falcons

Last year, in 9 games with Penix under center, Bijan ran 32 routes out wide and had 1.13 YPRR with a 2.7% Tgt%.

Atlanta Falcons

In 2026, backfield routes had a 16.7% target rate, 2.08 yards per route, and 6 catches on 9 targets; wideout routes had a 5.6% target rate, 5.43 yards per route, and 3 catches on 7 targets (small sample).

Atlanta Falcons

2025 alignment: Backfield 65.7%, Slot 21.1%, Wideout 13.2%; 2026: Backfield 72.7%, Slot 6.1%, Wideout 21.2%. Slot usage is down 15.0%, and new OC Tommy Reese has Bijan running way less out of the slot.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons are giving up big chunk plays to WRs and TEs.

Green Bay Packers

The Falcons gave up 3 passing TDs to Bryce Young against the Panthers.

Green Bay Packers

The run game is still not great without Jacobs.

Green Bay Packers

Reed is OUT; Golden, Kraft, and Smith are still in the offense.

Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson is Love’s top target and is a threat to score whenever he gets the ball.

Green Bay Packers

This is the Packers’ first home game.

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love has thrown 2 TDs in each game this season.

Green Bay Packers

The Falcons did not score a touchdown last week.

Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson scored 13 total touchdowns in 14 games with Michael Penix Jr.

Atlanta Falcons

The Packers will be at home for the first time this season on Thursday.

Green Bay Packers

The Falcons have allowed 239 passing yards per game.

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is averaging 244.5 passing yards through two games.

Green Bay Packers

In Michael Penix Jr.’s starts last season, Kyle Pitts averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game.

Atlanta Falcons

OC Tommy Rees said Kyle Pitts is an integral part of what they want to do, cited a couple missed opportunities in Week 1, and said he needs to do a better job bringing Pitts’ talents to the forefront.

Atlanta Falcons

Penix Jr is back; last season, with Penix Jr and Drake London healthy, Pitts had 4+ receptions in 6/9 games.

Atlanta Falcons

Through two weeks, the Packers had allowed the 5th fewest rushing yards per game.

Atlanta Falcons

Pitts covered this receiving-yards line in 18/20 games with just 3+ receptions.

Atlanta Falcons

The Packers allowed 4+ receptions to tight ends in each of the first two weeks this season; those tight ends were described as less explosive than Pitts.

Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta offensive staff praised Pitts’s development and work ethic, which the post links to his $54 million contract extension.

Atlanta Falcons

There has been serious talk about getting Pitts more involved after a slow start to the year; Tommy Rees took accountability, saying the Atlanta offensive staff needs to get Pitts going ahead of the Packers game.

Atlanta Falcons

Pitts went over this line in 7/9 games with Penix behind center.

Atlanta Falcons

Stefanski was known as a TE-friendly coach heading into the season.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta OC Rees said the team needs to get Pitts going and that he is an integral part of what they do.

Atlanta Falcons

Last season, Pitts cleared this line in 6/8 starts by Penix in which he did not leave the game early.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons changed from Cooper Rush to Penix at quarterback.

Atlanta Falcons

Pitts had just 1 catch in his first 2 games of the season.

Atlanta Falcons

Jordan Love has one of the league’s highest efficiency ratings against zone coverage, with a top-five EPA per play against zone.

Green Bay Packers

Last season, Atlanta ran zone coverage on around 75% of its defensive snaps, described as one of the league’s highest-volume zone defenses.

Green Bay Packers

With Reed out, Love had targets available in Golden, Watson, and Kraft.

Green Bay Packers

Love went over this line in 16/22 healthy home games; when Watson and Kraft were available, he went over in 18/25 games.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers (221) and Bryce Young (287) both went over their respective passing-yard lines against Atlanta.

Green Bay Packers

Through two weeks, Green Bay had the fewest rushing yards per game, while Atlanta was allowing the fewest.

Green Bay Packers

Through two weeks, Atlanta allowed opposing WR longest receptions of 28 yards (Tetairoa McMillan), 25 yards (Jalen Coker), 55 yards (Xavier Legette), 14 yards (DK Metcalf), and 28 yards (Michael Pittman Jr.); 4/5 were over.

Green Bay Packers

Golden ran nearly every route in Week 2, drew 6 targets, saw multiple downfield looks, and finished with 58 receiving yards.

Green Bay Packers

In Week 2, Golden was targeted multiple times downfield and drew defensive pass interference on some of those opportunities.

Green Bay Packers

Golden has been functioning as a boundary receiver, with the post describing him in outside matchups rather than occasional slot snaps.

Green Bay Packers

In games with 4+ targets and at least 32% of snaps, Golden cleared this line in 6/8 games and averaged a 31.9-yard longest reception.

Green Bay Packers

In the opener, Golden saw 12 targets, an 87% route participation rate, 39% target share, and a 12.2-yard aDOT; in Week 2, he ran a route on 32 of Jordan Love’s 33 dropbacks and saw another 6 targets.

Green Bay Packers

Through two games, he has drawn 18 targets, caught 10 passes for 153 yards, and posted a 42-yard reception in Week 1.

Green Bay Packers

Cooper Rush saw only 22 total passing attempts against the Steelers in Week 1, while Russell Wilson couldn’t complete 20 total passes last week despite trailing by a huge margin throughout the game.

ATL

He has only had one career game with 22+ completions.

ATL

Penix never recorded more than 22 completions across his six healthy road starts last season, averaging only 17.5 completions per game.

ATL

Atlanta is already a run-first team, and I expect an extremely run-heavy game plan here.

ATL

This is Penix’s first start in 10 months after suffering a torn ACL, and it comes on a short week on the road.

ATL