Offensive snaps (Last 3)2 games
42
1 game(s) carried no value
Availability
Current status
Depth role
TE1
3WR 1TE
CuratedBets historical data · Aug 18 · 3:33 AM ET · Updated 65d ago
Exact-Prop Mentions
Attention
1
Attention source
2 captured statements
Rank for this player
1 / 1
Attention timing
First captured source 12:54 AM ET
Only one captured source has picked this exact prop so far.
First mention 1d 19h before kickoff
Additional source activity
- 1 contextual or unclassified — captured statements whose intent could not be established. Not counted as agreement of any kind.
None of these counts toward the attention figure above. A source who leans, fades or passes has not picked this prop.
Show the full chronology
- 1:29 PM ET Sportsbook 3.5 -114
- 8:15 PM ET Kickoff
Sportsbook captures and source statements in the order they were recorded. Their order is a fact; it is not evidence that either caused the other.
Ranked by how many distinct sources hold an active tracked position on each exact prop. Captured statements that take no position (leans, fades and context) are quoted but never counted here. Attention is not a recommendation, and CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Opportunity
Role and opportunity
How much of this offence has actually run through him, whether that has moved, and how steady it has been. Per game, last 5 of 2026.
Targets
4.2
Receptions
3.0
Receiving yards
33.8
3 metrics below the coverage floor
- Snap share — Observed in 3 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Target share — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
- Red-zone targets — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
Exact-Line History
History at 3.5
Every window below is computed at this exact line only, graded with the same engine that settles a real prop. Records at nearby lines are not mixed in. A balanced record is reported as neutral, not as a lean.
Last 5
2 of 5 above
5 graded · sample: limited
Last 10 · Away
5 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Season
2 of 6 above
6 graded · sample: moderate
Multi-season
37 of 84 above
84 graded · sample: substantial
Home
6 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Versus opponent
0 of 2 above
2 graded · sample: insufficient
3.5 is 1.5 above the Last 5 median of 2.
Sample strength reflects the number of graded games only, never how lopsided the record is. Where a line is stated as a distance from a median, that is the difference between two numbers — not a statement that the line is favourable, soft or mispriced.
View historical detail
Assessed history
7Additional historical context
-
Moderate historical context Last 5
2 of 5 above 3.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Meaningful difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Moderate historical context Last 3
1 of 3 above 3.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Last 10
5 of 10 above 3.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Away
19 of 40 above 3.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Home
16 of 40 above 3.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Season
0 of 2 above 3.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Large difference from the line
- The pattern holds across the sample
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Vs opponent
0 of 1 above 3.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Based on a single game
- Meaningful difference from the line
- Per-game values not available
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Bands describe the EVIDENCE, not the bet.
Facts shown without a strength band
- Advanced Performance — No comparison cohort exists for these metrics, so how substantial they are cannot be established from stored data.
- Rest History — Rest is recorded as exact day counts with no cohort of values for matching-rest games, so there is no magnitude to measure.
Recorded values
80
Last 3
N=3
1 median 2.3 average 0–6
6 0 1
Finished above 3.5 in 1 of 3.
Last 5
N=5
2 median 3.2 average 0–7
7 2 6 0 1
Finished above 3.5 in 2 of 5.
Last 10
N=10
4 median 4.4 average 0–11
2 2 7 6 11 7 2 6 0 1
Finished above 3.5 in 5 of 10.
Splits
- Season N=2 0 · 1
- Home N=40 median 3
- Away N=40 median 3
- Vs opponent N=1 2
Every split shows the games behind it. A split with a small sample is reported as those games rather than as an average of them.
- Red-zone targets 1.4 N=5
Advanced, last 5
- Receiving EPA -0.29 N=5
- Air yards 39.2 N=5
Upcoming rest: 4 days · prior games on 4 days’ rest: N=4
Exact days between games. CuratedBets defines no short/standard/extended rest categories, so none is applied here.
Game statistics: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical archive, not a live official feed). Averages, medians and counts: CuratedBets calculation.
These are records of what CuratedBets observed and when. They are not an opening line, not a closing line, not a live price and not a recommendation. CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Recent Games
Last 5 games
The individual games behind the averages above, most recent first. These are recorded results, not a trend and not a forecast. A blank cell means the statistic was not recorded for that game — it is not a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Snaps | Targets | Rec | Rec yds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | vs CHI | — | 7 | 5 | 60 |
| Oct 11 | vs BAL | — | 6 | 5 | 42 |
| Oct 5 | @ NO | 29 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| Sep 24 | @ GB | 42 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| Sep 20 | vs CAR | 26 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
Regular season only. These are the games this player actually played, so a week he missed is absent rather than recorded as a zero.
Matchup
Matchup context
What this defence has been observed doing, and — when an exact prop is selected — the recorded interaction between these units and defences this player has already faced that are structurally similar to this week’s. These are observed distributions. They are not a claim that either side has the better of it.
Opponent defensive structure · GB
3
Defensive personnel
2 CB, 2 DE, 2 DT, 1 FS, 1 MLB, 1 OLB, 2 SS 14%
417 charted plays across 5 games
Defenders in box
5.3 average
417 charted plays across 5 games
Pass rushers
2.0 average
417 charted plays across 5 games
Observed over 417 charted plays across 5 charted games · Last 5 charted games · 2025. CuratedBets does not yet have usable charted defensive plays from this season, so this uses the most recent charted games available before kickoff — historical context, not a description of how this defence is playing this season. These are recorded distributions for this defence. They are not a rating, not a comparison against other defences, and they carry no side.
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
View full matchup detail
Offensive scheme
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Scheme interaction
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
How comparable defences were chosen
- Man / zone compared as a charted distribution
- Coverage shell compared as a charted distribution
- Defensive personnel compared as a charted distribution
- Defenders in box compared as a charted distribution
- Pass rushers compared as a charted distribution
A defence qualifies when enough of these families are charted for both teams and the observed distributions are close enough to compare. How close is measured internally and is not published: it describes how alike two defences have looked, and it is never a probability, a price or an expected outcome.
Availability
1Availability — 1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Rest and workload
4
Targets (Last 3)3 games
3 targets
3 games · average 4.3333 targets
Receptions (Last 3)3 games
1 receptions
3 games · average 2.3333 receptions
1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Travel and environment
5
Venue1 game
Outdoor_confirmed · grass
Altitude data unavailable
Home / away1 game
Away
Lambeau Field
Time-zone shift1 game
1 hour
Travel1 game
1235.57 km
Conditions
Weather not reported
Not recorded in the source data.
Coaching context
2
Head coach tenure2 games
Raheem Morris
2 games observed · 2026
this coach name has more than one stint here, so the name is carrying more than it can
Coordinator / play-caller
Data unavailable
Offensive coordinator · Defensive coordinator · Play caller
Not recorded in the source data.
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Each line names a missing input, not a judgement. “Nothing on record” is not a finding of full health, an unchanged unit, or an ordinary week.
A distribution whose top category holds the whole sample is one charted style observed, not a tendency. Charting depth varies by game and the play count is stated on every card.
Context
Source Context
Source-reported context relevant to this player and matchup.
Player context
Recent Form
Player contextOn 348 routes with Penix, Pitts had 16.4% of team targets, 0.28 fantasy points per route and 2 touchdowns; on 641 routes with Cousins, he had 19.1%, 0.38 and 7 touchdowns.
Recent Form
Player contextPitts had 1 catch for 15 yards on 4 targets through two games.
Recent Form
Player contextIn Michael Penix Jr.’s starts last season, Kyle Pitts averaged 41.7 receiving yards per game.
Matchup
Player contextThrough two weeks, the Packers had allowed the 5th fewest rushing yards per game.
Recent Form
Player contextPitts covered this receiving-yards line in 18/20 games with just 3+ receptions.
Matchup
Player contextThe Packers allowed 4+ receptions to tight ends in each of the first two weeks this season; those tight ends were described as less explosive than Pitts.
Lineup
Player contextThe Atlanta offensive staff praised Pitts’s development and work ethic, which the post links to his $54 million contract extension.
News
Player contextThere has been serious talk about getting Pitts more involved after a slow start to the year; Tommy Rees took accountability, saying the Atlanta offensive staff needs to get Pitts going ahead of the Packers game.
Recent Form
Player contextPitts went over this line in 7/9 games with Penix behind center.
News
Player contextStefanski was known as a TE-friendly coach heading into the season.
News
Player contextAtlanta OC Rees said the team needs to get Pitts going and that he is an integral part of what they do.
Recent Form
Player contextLast season, Pitts cleared this line in 6/8 starts by Penix in which he did not leave the game early.
Lineup
Player contextThe Falcons changed from Cooper Rush to Penix at quarterback.
Recent Form
Player contextPitts had just 1 catch in his first 2 games of the season.
Results
What happened
over3.5Receptions
1
lossGraded Oct 5, 17:17 UTC
How CuratedBets counts attention and evidence
Method
Evidence and method
How the football observations on this page group together, and which families had anything to say.
18 football observations 14 evidence groups 5 of 13 families with anything on record. Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals.
How this page counts evidence
Observations
18
Evidence groups
14
Groups with a recorded overlap
2
Families with anything on record
5 of 13
Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals. The largest group holds 3 readings of the same underlying evidence.
A group is a statement about how observations relate to one another. It is not a strength, a rating or a confidence, and a large number of groups is not a claim that the evidence is strong.
Family coverage for this prop
- Base role Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Game-state role 6 observations · 6 not displayable
- Offensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Defensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Scheme interaction Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Availability 1 observation · 1 not displayable
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Rest and workload 4 observations · 1 not displayable
- Travel and environment 5 observations
- Coaching context 2 observations
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Every absence names a missing input rather than a judgement. Nothing on record is not a finding of zero. “Not displayable” means the observation exists and this page has no reader-facing wording for it yet; it is counted here rather than printed in the form the engine stored it.