Offensive snaps (Last 3)3 games
56
3 games · average 53.3333
Availability
Current status
Depth role
QB2
3WR 1TE
CuratedBets historical data · Aug 18 · 3:33 AM ET · Updated 65d ago
Exact-Prop Mentions
Attention
1
Attention source
5 captured statements
Rank for this player
1 / 1
Attention timing
First captured source 10:50 AM ET
Only one captured source has picked this exact prop so far.
First mention 1d 9h before kickoff
Additional source activity
- 4 contextual or unclassified — captured statements whose intent could not be established. Not counted as agreement of any kind.
None of these counts toward the attention figure above. A source who leans, fades or passes has not picked this prop.
Show the full chronology
- 8:15 PM ET Kickoff
Sportsbook captures and source statements in the order they were recorded. Their order is a fact; it is not evidence that either caused the other.
Ranked by how many distinct sources hold an active tracked position on each exact prop. Captured statements that take no position (leans, fades and context) are quoted but never counted here. Attention is not a recommendation, and CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Opportunity
Role and opportunity
How much of this offence has actually run through him, whether that has moved, and how steady it has been. Per game, last 4 of 2026.
Pass attempts
27.5
Completions
17.8
Passing yards
236.0
Passing touchdowns
1.50
Rush attempts
1.8
Rushing yards
1.2
Sacks taken
2.2
Exact-Line History
History at 19.5
Every window below is computed at this exact line only, graded with the same engine that settles a real prop. Records at nearby lines are not mixed in. A balanced record is reported as neutral, not as a lean.
Last 5
0 of 5 above
5 graded · sample: limited
Last 10
4 of 10 above
10 graded · sample: substantial
Season
0 of 4 above
4 graded · sample: limited
Multi-season
6 of 18 above
18 graded · sample: substantial
Home
4 of 9 above
9 graded · sample: moderate
Away
2 of 9 above
9 graded · sample: moderate
Versus opponent
0 of 1 above
1 graded · sample: insufficient
19.5 is 0.5 below the Last 5 median of 20.
Sample strength reflects the number of graded games only, never how lopsided the record is. Where a line is stated as a distance from a median, that is the difference between two numbers — not a statement that the line is favourable, soft or mispriced.
View historical detail
Assessed history
5Supporting historical context
-
Moderate historical context Away
2 of 7 above 19.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Meaningful difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Additional historical context
-
Moderate historical context Last 3
1 of 3 above 19.5
Why moderate historical context?
- Large difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Last 10
6 of 10 above 19.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Home
4 of 7 above 19.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Driven by one or two outlying games
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Closely matched to this situation
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
-
Weak historical evidence Last 5
3 of 5 above 19.5
Why weak historical evidence?
- Small difference from the line
- Directly relevant to this market
- Current-season evidence
- Official warehouse data
Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)
Bands describe the EVIDENCE, not the bet.
Facts shown without a strength band
- Advanced Performance — No comparison cohort exists for these metrics, so how substantial they are cannot be established from stored data.
- Rest History — Rest is recorded as exact day counts with no cohort of values for matching-rest games, so there is no magnitude to measure.
Recorded values
14
Last 3
N=3
13 median 15.7 average 12–22
22 12 13
Finished above 19.5 in 1 of 3.
Last 5
N=5
20 median 17.6 average 12–22
20 21 22 12 13
Finished above 19.5 in 3 of 5.
Last 10
N=10
20 median 18.7 average 12–27
21 27 13 18 20 20 21 22 12 13
Finished above 19.5 in 6 of 10.
Splits
- Home N=7 median 20
- Away N=7 median 18
Every split shows the games behind it. A split with a small sample is reported as those games rather than as an average of them.
Advanced, last 5
- Passing EPA -0.14 N=5
- Air yards 262 N=5
- Yards after catch 82.8 N=5
Upcoming rest: 312 days · prior games on 312 days’ rest: N=0
Exact days between games. CuratedBets defines no short/standard/extended rest categories, so none is applied here.
Game statistics: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical archive, not a live official feed). Averages, medians and counts: CuratedBets calculation.
No sportsbook price was captured at this exact line. No matching CuratedBets sportsbook observation captured for under19.5Completions . A nearby line is a different prop and is not shown in its place.
These are records of what CuratedBets observed and when. They are not an opening line, not a closing line, not a live price and not a recommendation. CuratedBets does not advise wagers.
Recent Games
Last 4 games
The individual games behind the averages above, most recent first. These are recorded results, not a trend and not a forecast. A blank cell means the statistic was not recorded for that game — it is not a zero.
| Date | Opponent | Snaps | Pass att | Pass yds | Rush att |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | vs CHI | — | 33 | 225 | 1 |
| Oct 11 | vs BAL | — | 32 | 240 | 2 |
| Oct 5 | @ NO | 57 | 20 | 223 | 2 |
| Sep 24 | @ GB | 71 | 25 | 256 | 2 |
Regular season only. These are the games this player actually played, so a week he missed is absent rather than recorded as a zero.
Matchup
Matchup context
What this defence has been observed doing, and — when an exact prop is selected — the recorded interaction between these units and defences this player has already faced that are structurally similar to this week’s. These are observed distributions. They are not a claim that either side has the better of it.
Opponent defensive structure · GB
3
Defensive personnel
2 CB, 2 DE, 2 DT, 1 FS, 1 MLB, 1 OLB, 2 SS 14%
417 charted plays across 5 games
Defenders in box
5.3 average
417 charted plays across 5 games
Pass rushers
2.0 average
417 charted plays across 5 games
Observed over 417 charted plays across 5 charted games · Last 5 charted games · 2025. CuratedBets does not yet have usable charted defensive plays from this season, so this uses the most recent charted games available before kickoff — historical context, not a description of how this defence is playing this season. These are recorded distributions for this defence. They are not a rating, not a comparison against other defences, and they carry no side.
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
View full matchup detail
Offensive scheme
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Scheme interaction
Looked for, and nothing was on record.
How comparable defences were chosen
- Man / zone compared as a charted distribution
- Coverage shell compared as a charted distribution
- Defensive personnel compared as a charted distribution
- Defenders in box compared as a charted distribution
- Pass rushers compared as a charted distribution
A defence qualifies when enough of these families are charted for both teams and the observed distributions are close enough to compare. How close is measured internally and is not published: it describes how alike two defences have looked, and it is never a probability, a price or an expected outcome.
Availability
1Availability — 1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Rest and workload
3
Pass attempts (Last 3)3 games
28
3 games · average 27
1 further observation recorded here is not in a form this page can display. They are counted in Evidence and method.
Travel and environment
5
Venue1 game
Outdoor_confirmed · grass
Altitude data unavailable
Home / away1 game
Away
Lambeau Field
Time-zone shift1 game
1 hour
Travel1 game
1235.57 km
Conditions
Weather not reported
Not recorded in the source data.
Coaching context
2
Head coach tenure2 games
Raheem Morris
2 games observed · 2026
this coach name has more than one stint here, so the name is carrying more than it can
Coordinator / play-caller
Data unavailable
Offensive coordinator · Defensive coordinator · Play caller
Not recorded in the source data.
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Each line names a missing input, not a judgement. “Nothing on record” is not a finding of full health, an unchanged unit, or an ordinary week.
A distribution whose top category holds the whole sample is one charted style observed, not a tendency. Charting depth varies by game and the play count is stated on every card.
Context
Source Context
Source-reported context relevant to this player and matchup.
Player context
Matchup
Player contextGreen Bay allowed a league-low 3.6 yards per pass play on early downs.
Matchup
Player contextThrough two games, Green Bay allowed 6.1 yards per pass attempt (7th) and a 6.2% touchdown rate (23rd); its opponents were Carson Wentz and Geno Smith, both in rain.
Recent Form
Player contextOver the past two years, Penix averaged 8.9 air yards per attempt (second in the league) and threw outside the numbers a league-high 49.4% of the time.
Recent Form
Player contextIn 2025, Penix completed 60.1% (30th) for 7.2 yards per attempt (15th), with a 3.3% touchdown rate (30th) and a league-low 1.1% interception rate.
Recent Form
Player contextAtlanta quarterbacks had a 38.2 rating (last in the league; next closest was 63.1), 55.6% completions (31st), 5.3 yards per pass attempt (31st), 1 touchdown and 5 interceptions.
Injury
Player contextPenix was cleared to play and Atlanta immediately tagged him to start; he had not faced a live defense in game conditions since his knee injury in November last season, and this is a new system.
Matchup
Player contextCooper Rush saw only 22 total passing attempts against the Steelers in Week 1, while Russell Wilson couldn’t complete 20 total passes last week despite trailing by a huge margin throughout the game.
Recent Form
Player contextHe has only had one career game with 22+ completions.
Recent Form
Player contextPenix never recorded more than 22 completions across his six healthy road starts last season, averaging only 17.5 completions per game.
News
Player contextAtlanta is already a run-first team, and I expect an extremely run-heavy game plan here.
Injury
Player contextThis is Penix’s first start in 10 months after suffering a torn ACL, and it comes on a short week on the road.
Results
What happened
under19.5Completions
18
winGraded Oct 7, 02:47 UTC
How CuratedBets counts attention and evidence
Method
Evidence and method
How the football observations on this page group together, and which families had anything to say.
17 football observations 13 evidence groups 5 of 13 families with anything on record. Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals.
How this page counts evidence
Observations
17
Evidence groups
13
Groups with a recorded overlap
2
Families with anything on record
5 of 13
Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals. The largest group holds 3 readings of the same underlying evidence.
A group is a statement about how observations relate to one another. It is not a strength, a rating or a confidence, and a large number of groups is not a claim that the evidence is strong.
Family coverage for this prop
- Base role Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Game-state role 6 observations · 6 not displayable
- Offensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Defensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Scheme interaction Looked for, and nothing was on record.
- Availability 1 observation · 1 not displayable
- Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
- Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
- Rest and workload 3 observations · 1 not displayable
- Travel and environment 5 observations
- Coaching context 2 observations
- Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
Every absence names a missing input rather than a judgement. Nothing on record is not a finding of zero. “Not displayable” means the observation exists and this page has no reader-facing wording for it yet; it is counted here rather than printed in the form the engine stored it.