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Player Intelligence

Carnell Tate

WR ·Tennessee Titans ·TEN @ NYG ·Sun Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET

Selected prop over38.5Receiving Yards

at NYG · Sun Sep 27 · 1:00 PM ET

1 Captured source · rank 1 of 2 Book 38.5-113 Final 58 Win

Availability

Current status

Depth role WR1

3WR 1TE

CuratedBets historical data · Aug 18 · 3:33 AM ET · Updated 65d ago

Switch prop · 2 on this player

Each line and each side is its own prop. Selecting one rescopes the whole page to it, and the address bar keeps the market, side and line.

Exact-Prop Mentions

Attention

1 Attention source

3 captured statements

Rank for this player 1 / 2
Attention timing

First captured source 1:15 AM ET

Only one captured source has picked this exact prop so far.

First mention 1d 11h before kickoff

Additional source activity
  • 2 contextual or unclassified — captured statements whose intent could not be established. Not counted as agreement of any kind.

None of these counts toward the attention figure above. A source who leans, fades or passes has not picked this prop.

Show the full chronology
  1. 1:15 AM ET Sportsbook 38.5 -113
  2. 1:00 PM ET Kickoff

Sportsbook captures and source statements in the order they were recorded. Their order is a fact; it is not evidence that either caused the other.

Ranked by how many distinct sources hold an active tracked position on each exact prop. Captured statements that take no position (leans, fades and context) are quoted but never counted here. Attention is not a recommendation, and CuratedBets does not advise wagers.

Opportunity

Role and opportunity

How much of this offence has actually run through him, whether that has moved, and how steady it has been. Per game, last 5 of 2026.

Targets 7.6
Receptions 5.0
Receiving yards 61.2
3 metrics below the coverage floor
  • Snap share — Observed in 2 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
  • Target share — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.
  • Red-zone targets — Observed in 0 of 5 games in this window — below the coverage floor CuratedBets requires before averaging. The games themselves are still on record.

Exact-Line History

History at 38.5

Every window below is computed at this exact line only, graded with the same engine that settles a real prop. Records at nearby lines are not mixed in. A balanced record is reported as neutral, not as a lean.

2 games on record
Last 5

3 of 5 above

5 graded · sample: limited

Last 10 · Season · Multi-season

3 of 6 above

6 graded · sample: moderate

Home

0 of 3 above

3 graded · sample: limited

Away

3 of 3 above

3 graded · sample: limited

Versus opponent

1 of 1 above

1 graded · sample: insufficient

Sample strength reflects the number of graded games only, never how lopsided the record is. Where a line is stated as a distance from a median, that is the difference between two numbers — not a statement that the line is favourable, soft or mispriced.

View historical detail

Assessed history

5

Additional historical context

  • No historical lean Season

    0 of 2 above 38.5

    Sample: 2 games · median 32.5 / mean 32.5 · Limited sample

    Why no historical lean?
    • Values sit close to the line
    • The pattern holds across the sample
    • Directly relevant to this market
    • Current-season evidence
    • Official warehouse data

    Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)

  • No historical lean Last 10

    0 of 2 above 38.5

    Sample: 2 games · median 32.5 / mean 32.5 · Limited sample

    Why no historical lean?
    • Values sit close to the line
    • The pattern holds across the sample
    • Directly relevant to this market
    • Current-season evidence
    • Official warehouse data

    Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)

  • No historical lean Last 5

    0 of 2 above 38.5

    Sample: 2 games · median 32.5 / mean 32.5 · Limited sample

    Why no historical lean?
    • Values sit close to the line
    • The pattern holds across the sample
    • Directly relevant to this market
    • Current-season evidence
    • Official warehouse data

    Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)

  • No historical lean Last 3

    0 of 2 above 38.5

    Sample: 2 games · median 32.5 / mean 32.5 · Limited sample

    Why no historical lean?
    • Values sit close to the line
    • The pattern holds across the sample
    • Directly relevant to this market
    • Current-season evidence
    • Official warehouse data

    Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)

  • No historical lean Home

    0 of 2 above 38.5

    Sample: 2 games · median 32.5 / mean 32.5 · Limited sample

    Why no historical lean?
    • Values sit close to the line
    • The pattern holds across the sample
    • Directly relevant to this market
    • Current-season evidence
    • Closely matched to this situation
    • Official warehouse data

    Source: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical)

Bands describe the EVIDENCE, not the bet.

Facts shown without a strength band
  • Advanced Performance — No comparison cohort exists for these metrics, so how substantial they are cannot be established from stored data.
  • Rest History — Rest is recorded as exact day counts with no cohort of values for matching-rest games, so there is no magnitude to measure.

Recorded values

2
Last 3 N=2

2 prior games — the games are listed rather than averaged.

38 27

Finished above 38.5 in 0 of 2.

Fewer than 3 prior games are on record; this is the actual sample, not a window filled from further back.

Last 5 N=2

2 prior games — the games are listed rather than averaged.

38 27

Finished above 38.5 in 0 of 2.

Fewer than 5 prior games are on record; this is the actual sample, not a window filled from further back.

Last 10 N=2

2 prior games — the games are listed rather than averaged.

38 27

Finished above 38.5 in 0 of 2.

Fewer than 10 prior games are on record; this is the actual sample, not a window filled from further back.

Splits

  • Season N=2 38 · 27
  • Home N=2 38 · 27

Every split shows the games behind it. A split with a small sample is reported as those games rather than as an average of them.

Advanced, last 5

  • Receiving EPA -1.62 N=2
  • Air yards 58.5 N=2
  • Yards after catch 5.5 N=2

Upcoming rest: 7 days · prior games on 7 days’ rest: N=1

Exact days between games. CuratedBets defines no short/standard/extended rest categories, so none is applied here.

Game statistics: CuratedBets warehouse (nflverse historical archive, not a live official feed). Averages, medians and counts: CuratedBets calculation.

Sportsbook markets

14 markets · 39 priced wagers
MarketLatest observedFirst observedMovementAlternatesAttentionObserved
Rushing1
Rush + Receiving Touchdowns
Threshold props1 threshold, each its own wager
—
Per line
change count unknown · last changed 27d ago
—
25d ago
Receiving3
Longest Reception
Threshold props4 thresholds, each its own wager
—
Per line
change count unknown · last changed 25d ago
—
25d ago
Receiving Yards
38.5 O-113 / U-113 Final58 OWin ULoss
38.5 O-114 / U-114
Line unchanged
O -114 → -113 · U -114 → -113
change count unknown · last changed 26d ago
History
—
25d ago
Receptions
3.5 O+106 / U-140 Final6 OWin ULoss
3.5 O+106 / U-140
No change observed
—
25d ago
Alternate ladder Carnell Tate - Alt Receptions · 7 lines
Hide
LineOverUnderFirst observed → changeObserved
2+ -750 — first -800 -800 → -750 25d ago
3+ -240 — first -245 -245 → -240 25d ago
4+ +104 — first +104↩ 8 25d ago
5+ +225 — first +225↩ 2 25d ago
6+ +450 — first +450↩ 5 25d ago
7+ +880 — first +850 +850 → +880 25d ago
8+ +1400 — first +1400↩ 2 25d ago
Touchdowns10
Anytime Touchdown
Yes +340 one side only
Yes +330 one side only
Line unchanged
O +330 → +340
3 changes · last changed 28d ago
History
—
—
25d ago
Anytime Touchdown 1st Half
Yes +650 one side only
Yes +650 one side only
↩ Back to first
4 changes · last changed 27d ago
History
—
—
25d ago
Anytime Touchdown 1st Quarter
Yes +1500 one side only
Yes +1500 one side only
↩ Back to first
2 changes · last changed 27d ago
History
—
—
25d ago
Anytime Touchdown 2nd Half
Yes +650 one side only
Yes +650 one side only
No change observed
—
—
25d ago
Anytime Touchdown 2nd Quarter
Yes +1100 one side only
Yes +1000 one side only
Line unchanged
O +1000 → +1100
7 changes · last changed 25d ago
History
—
—
25d ago
Anytime Touchdown 3rd Quarter
Yes +1500 one side only
Yes +1500 one side only
↩ Back to first
4 changes · last changed 25d ago
History
—
—
25d ago
Anytime Touchdown 4th Quarter
Yes +1100 one side only
Yes +1000 one side only
Line unchanged
O +1000 → +1100
5 changes · last changed 27d ago
History
—
—
25d ago
First Team Touchdown Scorer
Yes +650 one side only
Yes +650 one side only
No change observed
—
—
25d ago
First Touchdown Scorer
— +1400 one side only
— +1500 one side only
Line unchanged
O +1500 → +1400
3 changes · last changed 25d ago
History
—
—
25d ago
Last Touchdown Scorer
— +1200 one side only
— +1300 one side only
Line unchanged
O +1300 → +1200
3 changes · last changed 25d ago
History
—
—
25d ago
Movement compares the latest observation with the first observation of each wager. A price change is shown as both observed prices; only a line change is shown as a delta. First observed is not the book's first price. Prices from Sportsbook observation

These are records of what CuratedBets observed and when. They are not an opening line, not a closing line, not a live price and not a recommendation. CuratedBets does not advise wagers.

Recent Games

Last 5 games

The individual games behind the averages above, most recent first. These are recorded results, not a trend and not a forecast. A blank cell means the statistic was not recorded for that game — it is not a zero.

Date Opponent Snaps Targets Rec Rec yds
Oct 18 @ IND — 7 6 70
Oct 11 vs HOU — 5 1 6
Oct 4 @ BAL 54 12 9 145
Sep 27 @ NYG — 9 6 58
Sep 20 vs PHI 40 5 3 27

Regular season only. These are the games this player actually played, so a week he missed is absent rather than recorded as a zero.

Matchup

Matchup context

What this defence has been observed doing, and — when an exact prop is selected — the recorded interaction between these units and defences this player has already faced that are structurally similar to this week’s. These are observed distributions. They are not a claim that either side has the better of it.

Opponent defensive structure · NYG

3
Defensive personnel 2 CB, 1 DT, 1 FS, 2 ILB, 1 NT, 2 OLB, 2 SS 10%

370 charted plays across 5 games

Defenders in box 4.9 average

370 charted plays across 5 games

Pass rushers 1.9 average

370 charted plays across 5 games

Observed over 370 charted plays across 5 charted games · Last 5 charted games · 2025. CuratedBets does not yet have usable charted defensive plays from this season, so this uses the most recent charted games available before kickoff — historical context, not a description of how this defence is playing this season. These are recorded distributions for this defence. They are not a rating, not a comparison against other defences, and they carry no side.

Looked for, and nothing was on record.

View full matchup detail

Offensive scheme

Looked for, and nothing was on record.

Scheme interaction

Looked for, and nothing was on record.

How comparable defences were chosen

  • Man / zone compared as a charted distribution
  • Coverage shell compared as a charted distribution
  • Defensive personnel compared as a charted distribution
  • Defenders in box compared as a charted distribution
  • Pass rushers compared as a charted distribution

A defence qualifies when enough of these families are charted for both teams and the observed distributions are close enough to compare. How close is measured internally and is not published: it describes how alike two defences have looked, and it is never a probability, a price or an expected outcome.

Rest and workload

4
Offensive snaps (Last 3)1 game

40

1 game(s) carried no value

Targets (Last 3)2 games

5.5 targets

Receptions (Last 3)2 games

3.5 receptions

Days rest1 game

7 days

Travel and environment

5
Venue1 game

Outdoor_confirmed · fieldturf

Altitude data unavailable

Home / away1 game

Away

MetLife Stadium

Time-zone shift1 game

1 hour

Travel1 game

1218.31 km

Conditions

Weather not reported

Not recorded in the source data.

Coaching context

2
Head coach tenure2 games

Robert Saleh

2 games observed · 2026

Coordinator / play-caller

Data unavailable

Offensive coordinator · Defensive coordinator · Play caller

Not recorded in the source data.

  • Availability Looked for, and nothing was on record.
  • Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
  • Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
  • Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.

Each line names a missing input, not a judgement. “Nothing on record” is not a finding of full health, an unchanged unit, or an ordinary week.

A distribution whose top category holds the whole sample is one charted style observed, not a tendency. Charting depth varies by game and the play count is stated on every card.

Context

Source Context

Source-reported context relevant to this player and matchup.

Published context

No source context has been recorded for this player yet.

Results

What happened

over38.5Receiving Yards

58

win

Graded Oct 7, 02:47 UTC

How CuratedBets counts attention and evidence

Method

Evidence and method

How the football observations on this page group together, and which families had anything to say.

15 football observations 13 evidence groups 4 of 13 families with anything on record. Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals.

How this page counts evidence
Observations

15

Evidence groups

13

Groups with a recorded overlap

2

Families with anything on record

4 of 13

Evidence groups help avoid counting multiple views of the same underlying information as separate signals. The largest group holds 2 readings of the same underlying evidence.

A group is a statement about how observations relate to one another. It is not a strength, a rating or a confidence, and a large number of groups is not a claim that the evidence is strong.

Family coverage for this prop
  • Base role Looked for, and nothing was on record.
  • Game-state role 4 observations · 4 not displayable
  • Offensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
  • Defensive scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.
  • Scheme interaction Looked for, and nothing was on record.
  • Availability Looked for, and nothing was on record.
  • Replacement / redistribution Not available for this matchup.
  • Unit configuration Not available for this matchup.
  • Rest and workload 4 observations
  • Travel and environment 5 observations
  • Coaching context 2 observations
  • Coach x scheme Looked for, and nothing was on record.

Every absence names a missing input rather than a judgement. Nothing on record is not a finding of zero. “Not displayable” means the observation exists and this page has no reader-facing wording for it yet; it is counted here rather than printed in the form the engine stored it.